ICES recommends a 2026 quota of 533,914 tonnes for Norwegian spring-spawning (NVG) herring, but warns of risks if states exceed advice
Methodology Changes and Data Gaps
The 2025 stock assessment was revised with new methodology, including RFID tag data for age groups 2–12+ and recruitment indices from the Norwegian-Russian Barents Sea ecosystem cruise (BESS). Reference points were also updated, with FMSY revised upwards and precautionary biomass thresholds revised downwards.
However, the Barents Sea was not covered by the IESNS survey in 2025, leaving no direct data for two-year-olds. ICES said this had only a negligible impact on the 2026 catch advice.
Historical Overfishing Raises Concerns
ICES highlighted that actual catches have exceeded its advice every year since 2013, as countries continue to set unilateral quotas that together surpass recommended levels. The scientific body warned that ignoring the agreed management strategy could push the stock below critical levels (Blim), resulting in long-term catch losses.
The probability of the spawning stock falling below Blim in 2027 is estimated at 0.5% under the management strategy but rises to 1.8% under a pure MSY approach, leading ICES to conclude that the agreed management rule remains more precautionary.
Key Figures
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Recommended quota 2026: 533,914 tonnes
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Recommended quota 2025: 401,794 tonnes
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Reported unilateral quotas 2025: 435,010 tonnes (estimated by ICES)
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Expected spawning stock in 2026: 3.012 million tonnes
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Critical spawning stock (Blim): 2.286 million tonnes
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Precautionary spawning stock (Bpa): 3.177 million tonnes
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Fishing mortality target in management strategy (FMGT): 0.14
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Expected fishing mortality 2025: 0.138
Outlook
The increased catch advice for 2026 reflects model revisions and updated biological reference points, rather than a strong recovery in stock condition. ICES warned that unless coastal states restrain quotas in line with the agreed management strategy, long-term sustainability could be undermined.