ICES Issues Stark Mixed Outlook for North Sea Sandeel Stocks

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ICES issues mixed outlook for sandeel in the North Sea as two areas face zero-catch advice while one region sees higher quota potential for 2026.

The latest ICES advice for 2026 presents a deeply uneven picture of sandeel across the North Sea, with two major stock areas recommended for zero catch and only one region showing a viable harvest.

The contrasting outcomes underscore a wider concern: sandeel stocks remain highly variable, vulnerable to environmental pressures, and exposed to major assessment uncertainties. As a key forage species supporting seabirds, marine mammals and commercial fish, the continued fragility of sandeel raises alarms for the broader North Sea ecosystem.

Against this backdrop, ICES says the state of sandeel is increasingly dependent on recruitment volatility, habitat integrity, and the effects of national closures in UK waters. Overall, the 2026 outlook highlights a stock complex under strain, with only isolated pockets of resilience.

Sandeel Area 4 – Northern and Central North Sea

ICES advises zero catch in 2026 and 2027 for Area 4. This region has been closed to targeted fishing since 2024, leaving no recent commercial samples and forcing the assessment to be downgraded to a Category 5 data-limited stock. Survey indices have remained low, and older age classes are poorly represented, making any resumption of fishing unjustifiable.

ICES warns that sandeel in Area 4 are particularly vulnerable, not only because of poor data but also due to habitat dependence. With the species spending most of its life in low‑silt sandy seabeds, pressures from offshore wind development, aggregate extraction and oil exploration pose additional risks. ICES states that catches should not increase unless clear evidence emerges that the stock can sustain exploitation, which is not currently the case.

Sandeel (Ammodytes spp.) in divisions 4.a–b, Sandeel Area 4 (northern and central North Sea)

Sandeel Area 3r – Northern and Central North Sea and Skagerrak

For Area 3r, ICES again advises zero catch in 2026 under the MSY approach. This stock is in significantly worse condition, with spawning‑stock biomass sitting below BPA, Blim and MSY Bescapement. Recruitment has been weak, and even with zero fishing, the stock is expected to remain below Blim in 2027.

The assessment also highlights structural challenges. Most of Area 3r lies within the Norwegian zone, where open‑and‑closed areas are dynamically managed each May. ICES was not asked to evaluate this approach. Management strategy evaluation work has shown that quota flexibility increases the risk of the stock falling below critical levels, further strengthening the case for a complete closure.

ICES also repeats habitat concerns: the stationary nature of lesser sandeel once settled makes them highly sensitive to seabed disturbance and climate‑driven changes in distribution. With no pathway to rebuild above reference points by 2027, ICES rejects the idea of even a monitoring TAC.

Sandeel (Ammodytes spp.) in divisions 4.a–b and Subdivision 20, Sandeel Area 3r (northern and central North Sea, Skagerrak)

Sandeel Area 1r – Central and Southern North Sea (Dogger Bank)

Area 1r is the only region with a viable fishery recommendation for 2026. ICES advises a catch of up to 95,451 tonnes under the MSY escapement strategy. The stock is in relatively strong condition, with spawning‑stock biomass above MSY Bescapement, BPA and Blim.

However, this positive outlook carries significant caveats. Since 2024, the UK closure of sandeel fishing in English and Scottish waters has displaced fishing effort into EU waters. This has altered the catch composition dramatically: in recent years, a high proportion of the catch has consisted of age‑0 fish, with 2024 samples showing 88 percent age‑0 by weight. This presents uncertainties in the assessment and raises concerns about local depletion where effort has concentrated.

ICES notes that abrupt shifts in fishing distribution have added uncertainty to estimates of fishing mortality, and the lack of biological samples from ages 2+ further complicates assessment reliability. The advisory body also warns that catching large volumes of age‑0 fish may have unknown consequences for recruitment across neighbouring sandeel areas. Despite these uncertainties, the biomass outlook for 2026 supports a higher TAC than in 2025.

Sandeel (Ammodytes spp.) in divisions 4.b–c, Sandeel Area 1r (central and southern North Sea, Dogger Bank)

Overall Outlook for Sandeel

Taken together, the three advice areas reflect a North Sea sandeel complex split sharply between collapse‑risk and relative stability. Area 1r remains a productive component of the stock structure, but Areas 3r and 4 continue to exhibit low biomass, weak recruitment and persistent vulnerability. The widespread closure of UK waters, combined with habitat pressures and the species’ short‑lived biology, feeds growing uncertainty into ICES assessments.

As a foundational prey species, sandeel play a critical ecological role. The contrasting 2026 advice signals deeper instability in the North Sea ecosystem, and ICES emphasises that restoring and protecting sandeel habitat is essential to rebuilding depleted areas. Whether the zero‑catch regions can recover will depend entirely on the strength of incoming year classes and the capacity of managers to limit environmental degradation across the stock’s sandy seabed habitats.