ICES Advises Increased Sardine Catch Limits For Celtic Seas 2026

ICES recommends a 16,158-tonne limit for 2026 sardine catches in the southern Celtic Seas, citing a 15.8% rise in the stock’s biomass index

Increased Fishing Opportunities

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has issued its latest advice on fishing opportunities for sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in Subarea 7, covering the southern Celtic Seas and the English Channel.

For the year 2026, the scientific body recommends that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches should be no more than 16,158 tonnes.

This figure represents a significant increase from the previous year. The advised catch for 2025 was set at 13,950 tonnes. The new recommendation marks a year-on-year advice change of +15.8%. ICES clarified the reasoning behind this upward adjustment, stating, “The advice for 2026 is higher than the advice for 2025 because of a larger biomass index in 2025 relative to the mean of 2023–2024”.

Stock Health and Biomass Trends

The assessment indicates that the stock is currently in a healthy state relative to precautionary safeguards. The stock size is reported to be above $I_{stat}$ , which serves as the index trigger value for the biomass safeguard.

The advice is calculated based on the ratio between the most recent index value and the average of the two preceding years. The biomass index for 2025 (Index A) was estimated at 502,312 tonnes, while the average for 2023–2024 (Index B) was 433,671 tonnes. This results in an index ratio of 1.158.

Because the index is estimated to have increased by 15.8%, the uncertainty cap—which typically limits large fluctuations in advice—was not applied. ICES further notes that “the 1-over-2 rule with an uncertainty cap of 80% and a biomass safeguard is considered precautionary and as such a PA buffer was not considered”.

Data Quality and Survey Limitations

The assessment relies heavily on the PELTIC acoustic survey to estimate biomass. However, the 2025 survey faced specific technical limitations. “In 2025, the PELTIC survey did not sample a small offshore area in the Bristol Channel because of technical reasons,” the report states.

Despite this gap, the impact on the overall assessment is believed to be minimal. ICES estimates that the sardine biomass in this unsampled area is typically less than 5% of the total. Consequently, “the total estimated biomass in 2025 may have been slightly underestimated,” suggesting the actual stock health could be even stronger than reported.

Fishery Distribution and Boundaries

The fishery for sardine in this region is primarily conducted by purse-seine and pelagic trawl fleets. In 2024, purse-seiners accounted for 54% of the catch, while pelagic trawlers accounted for 46%. Discarding is considered negligible.

A recurring issue in the assessment of this stock involves the allocation of catches near the boundary of the Bay of Biscay. “As with previous assessments, French catches from ICES rectangles 25E5 and 25E4 (Subarea 7) are allocated to Division 8.a, as they occur on the boundary between divisions and are considered more closely associated with the sardine stock in divisions 8.a–b and 8.d”.

In 2024, the volume of catch reallocated to Subarea 8 was substantial, totaling 6,905 tonnes. This constitutes 41% of the catches in the rest of Subarea 7. ICES warns that “the boundary between sardine stocks in subareas 7 and 8 is unclear, and further studies are needed to support this procedure to allocate catches”.