The ICES has released their quota advice on Herring for 2021
The International Council for the Exploration for the Seas (ICES) has released their recommendations for the 2021 herring fisheries in the Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and the southwest of Ireland, along with the West of Scotland and West of Ireland.
In Division 7.a North of 52°30’N (Irish Sea), ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2021 should be no more than 7341 tonnes.
That is a quota of 723 tonnes less than the recommended and agreed quota of 8,064 tonnes for 2020.
In divisions 7.a South of 52°30’N, 7.g–h, and 7.j–k (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, and southwest of Ireland) the ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, there should be zero catch in 2021.
In divisions 6.a and 7.b–c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland) the ICES has recommended that when the MSY approach is applied, there should be zero catch in 2021.
ICES has provided forecasts on the development of herring (Clupea harengus) in divisions 6.a and 7.b–c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland), with zero-catch TAC and with the current monitoring TAC of 4,840 tonnes under two different uptake scenarios for the monitoring TAC in 2020. Both scenarios show an increase in spawning-stock biomass (SSB) in 2021, and a stable or small (up to +6%) increase in SSB in 2022.
EU DGMARE has requested ICES to evaluate the following:
For by-catch and for target stocks where ICES is advising zero TACs but the stock is caught in mixed-fisheries with other species where non-zero catches are advised, where possible ICES will provide the EU with illustrative catch scenarios that are consistent with the advice for the main target species in the fishery.
Where the zero TAC advice is given for a target stock subject to a MAP the catch scenarios for the zero TAC stock should include scenarios consistent the FMSY range in the target stock (e.g. FMSY, FMSY Lower and intermediate values) and quantify the corresponding changes in biomass. Scenarios should therefore also be produced that give, as a minimum, a stable biomass and increasing biomass if FMSY ranges do not. This may involve carrying out mixed fisheries forecast or providing Fmultipliers consistent with the advice for the target stocks or where forecasts are not possible the catch scenario should be based on the best available scientific information. Where possible ICES should provide catch scenarios which include changes in fishing pattern if they are considered likely by ICES.
For stocks where ICES is advising zero TACs but where a monitoring fishery would be useful to monitor stock development, where possible ICES will provide catch scenarios for a monitoring TAC. This should be the minimum level of catches needed to provide sufficient data for ICES to continue providing scientific advice on the state of this stock.
The information presented here represents two stocks that are assessed as one (herring in Division 6.a (N), and herring in divisions 6.a (S) and 7.b–c). The advice is based on trends from an analytical assessment. The update assessment shows that SSB has been declining since 2000 and is at the lowest level in the time-series. Recruitment is also at a low level with no strong cohorts evident in recent years. Fishing mortality has reduced since the introduction of the zero catch advice and is currently in line with the monitoring TAC in 2016.
Given the current zero catch advice for herring in divisions 6.a and 7.b–c and that a monitoring TAC has been agreed for 2020, exploratory forecasts were carried out, with different catches assumed in the intermediate year (2020).
The two scenarios considered were:
- Full uptake of the monitoring TAC (4,840 tonnes) in the intermediate year (2020).
- Partial uptake of the monitoring TAC (3,100 tonnes) in the intermediate year (2020). This assumes full uptake in Division 6.a (S), an uptake of 1,360 tonnes in divisions 7.b–c, and an uptake based on the 2019 catches in Division 6.a (N) (1740 tonnes).