Global aquaculture growth raises systemic risks for marine resources as feed systems strain wild stocks, biodiversity, and food security
Aquaculture Expansion Faces Growing Scrutiny
The rapid expansion of global aquaculture is increasingly being questioned by scientists and policymakers, as new analysis warns that current feed systems risk undermining marine ecosystems, coastal livelihoods and long-term food security.
Aquaculture already supplies more than half of global seafood production and is projected to approach two-thirds by 2030. However, the report argues that growth alone is not the issue, rather how farmed fish are fed, and where those feed ingredients come from. With oceans already under pressure from warming, acidification and biodiversity loss, the study frames feed sourcing as a central fault line for the sector’s future credibility.
Fishmeal Dependence And Wild Stock Pressure
A core concern is the continued reliance on fishmeal and fish oil derived from wild-caught forage fish. Around 16 million tonnes of wild fish, close to one-fifth of global wild catches, are processed into aquafeed each year. The report describes this as one of the least efficient protein transfers in the global food system, with significant losses through by-products, spoilage and processing waste.
Removing such volumes of forage fish directly affects marine food webs. Seabirds, whales and larger predatory fish depend on these stocks, and their depletion reduces ecosystem resilience at a time when climate stress is intensifying. The report also highlights that diverting omega-3 rich fish into feed reduces direct human access to essential nutrients, particularly in regions already facing dietary deficiencies.
Economic Volatility And Control Risks
The feed model also exposes aquaculture producers to commodity volatility. Fishmeal prices frequently exceed $2,000 per tonne, while fish oil prices can surpass $3,000 per tonne. According to the report, this creates a feedback loop where price spikes increase pressure on forage fisheries precisely when ocean systems are least able to absorb additional extraction.
This volatility, the authors argue, undermines claims that aquaculture is insulated from the ecological constraints facing wild fisheries. Instead, it ties farmed production directly to the health, and instability, of marine resources.
Soy And Terrestrial Environmental Costs
Plant-based proteins, particularly soy, have enabled aquaculture to scale rapidly, accounting for up to 20–30% of some salmon diets. However, the report links soy supply chains to deforestation, heavy fertiliser and pesticide use, and high greenhouse gas emissions.
Competition for soy between aquafeed, livestock feed and human food markets is identified as a growing systemic risk. Land and freshwater constraints, especially in major producing regions, could further destabilise global food systems if aquaculture demand continues to rise unchecked.
Biodiversity, Pollution And On-Farm Waste
Beyond feed sourcing, inefficiencies in feeding practices remain a major environmental issue. Feed is the single largest operating cost for most fish farms, yet a substantial proportion is wasted, contributing to nutrient loading and water pollution.
The report notes that overfeeding degrades local habitats, increases disease pressure and raises reliance on treatments. While precision feeding technologies and functional feeds offer potential solutions, the authors argue that adoption remains uneven and often limited by cost, infrastructure and proof at commercial scale.
Coastal Communities And Social Impacts
The industrial demand for forage fish also has direct social consequences. In regions such as Peru and Senegal, these stocks underpin local diets and small-scale fishing communities. The report warns that large-scale feed extraction undermines food security and income stability in these areas, raising equity concerns as aquaculture expands.
It concludes that without reform, aquaculture risks shifting environmental and economic burdens onto communities least equipped to absorb them.
Feed Innovation Seen As Critical Test
The report identifies alternative proteins, including insects, algae and microbial sources, as potential pathways to reduce pressure on wild stocks and land use. Circular feed systems using waste streams, alongside precision nutrition tools and functional feeds, are presented as promising but not yet proven at the scale required.
The authors stress that traceability, audited performance and peer-reviewed validation are essential if new feed solutions are to deliver measurable environmental gains rather than marketing claims.
High Stakes For The Next Decade
The report’s central message is that aquaculture’s future environmental footprint will be determined less by how much fish is farmed, and more by what those fish are fed. With ocean systems already under strain, the authors argue that feed reform is no longer optional if aquaculture is to remain a credible part of global food security.
