The NSAC urges climate-informed fisheries management to address cod population shifts due to warming seas
North Sea Advisory Council Urges Climate-Adaptive Management for Cod Stocks
The North Sea Advisory Council (NSAC) has issued a new call to action, urging climate-informed management of North Sea cod stocks.
Approved on 30 January 2025, the council’s advice highlights how changing environmental conditions, driven by rising sea temperatures, are destabilising cod populations and undermining recovery efforts.
Climate Change Threatens Cod Distribution
The report details how warming waters, disrupted ocean currents, and changes in the availability of plankton—critical to cod larvae—are pushing cod populations northward. Cod can only survive in temperatures between 0°C and 11°C, but southern North Sea waters now average 13 to 15°C. This shift has reduced food sources for cod larvae and increased predation risks, making it difficult for the southern cod stock to recover even with reduced fishing pressure.
“Climate change is altering the very foundation of cod survival in the southern North Sea,” the report warns, adding that traditional management strategies no longer align with the realities of a warming ocean.
Criticism of ICES Cod Management Approach
The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recently consolidated several North Sea and West of Scotland cod stocks into a single Northern Shelf stock, divided into three sub-stocks. NSAC has expressed doubts about this approach, questioning whether rebuilding the southern sub-stock is feasible under current climate conditions.
The council also highlighted the need for stock assessments to factor in real-time environmental data, such as sea temperature and prey availability, to improve the accuracy of future recommendations.
NSAC’s Climate-Focused Recommendations
To ensure sustainable cod fisheries, NSAC has outlined a series of key actions:
- Genetic Studies: Conduct research to better understand the population structure and behaviour of cod stocks.
- Integration of Climate Data: Incorporate climate-driven variables, including temperature and ocean productivity, into stock assessments.
- Ecosystem-Based Management: Adapt fisheries management to account for shifts in prey availability, spawning grounds, and other environmental factors.
- Flexible Quotas: Implement adaptive quotas that reflect real-time environmental conditions and stock health.
- Collaboration: Strengthen cooperation between scientists, policymakers, and stakeholders to develop solutions that balance conservation and fishing sustainability.
Ensuring Resilience for Future Fisheries
NSAC underscores the importance of building long-term resilience in cod stocks through measures such as protecting critical habitats and implementing adaptive management strategies. The council also recommends scenario-based evaluations to prepare for future climate-related challenges, ensuring that policies remain effective under evolving conditions.
The European Commission and North Sea member states are now reviewing these recommendations. As cod populations continue to shift in response to climate change, the debate over sustainable fisheries management is becoming more urgent than ever.